FREDERIC J. BRAUN | AFP | Getty Images

Job hunting has been dampened in 12 states that have opted out of federal unemployment programs in the past few weeks, which may not work as planned, according to a new analysis by Jobsite Indeed.

States ended the benefits of the pandemic-era – including an additional $ 300 a week – about three months before it ended on September 6.

The job hunt is about 4% below the national average in Alaska, Iowa, Mississippi and Missouri, which stopped paying federal benefits as of June 12, according to analysis released Tuesday.

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Activity is 1% lower in eight states – Alabama, Idaho, Indiana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming – that ended on June 19.

They are the first of a total of 25 states, all run by Republican governors, and withdrawing from federal unemployment programs to encourage recipients to look for work amid record jobs.

However, Indeed’s data – which measures clicks on job ads – suggests the opposite dynamics one would expect given the political intent to retire early, according to Indeed economist AnnElizabeth Konkel.

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“People in these states are currently searching less than the average job seeker,” she said.

Generous benefits provide an incentive to stay home and make it difficult for companies to hire, the governors claim. Critics say that social benefits do not have much of an impact on workers’ decisions and that cutting funds will hurt the economy by cutting household spending.

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“You’d think they’d be looking for more,” said Konkel. “At least for now, this is suppressing the idea that federal unemployment benefits are the main reason for friction in the labor market.”

The dates could shift in the coming weeks, she said.

It’s difficult to say with certainty what impact enhanced benefits will have on the job market without letting more time pass, says Michael Strain, director of economic studies at the right-wing think tank American Enterprise Institute.

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But it is likely that the labor market has rebounded to the point where the $ 300 weekly supplement has a negative impact, he said.

“The challenge to public order is to balance the good with the bad,” said Strain. “In June 2021, I believe the Unemployment Benefit of the generosity we give them does more harm than good – workers and the economy at large.”

$ 300 per week

Unemployment benefit usually replaces around half of the wages before a worker is laid off.

Congress increased weekly aid by $ 600 in the early days of the Covid pandemic. Lawmakers have also provided funding for the long-term unemployed and groups such as the self-employed and gig workers who are normally not eligible for government benefits.

Since then, they’ve cut the weekly grant in half – to $ 300 a week – and provided federal benefits through Labor Day.

According to an estimate by University of Chicago economist Peter Ganong, that additional $ 300 will pay about 42% of recipients as much or more than their previous salary. (These are primarily low-wage workers.)

“That makes it a bad financial deal for a large part of the workforce,” said Strain.

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Employment participation has remained relatively constant, which is a particular cause for concern when there was a record number of job vacancies in April, he said.

However, economists have pointed to reasons other than benefits for labor market dynamics.

For one, Covid health issues would likely keep some at home, they said.

A highly contagious variant of Covid makes up a larger proportion of US cases, and only 56% of US adults are fully vaccinated against Covid-19. The Biden government said Tuesday it will likely miss its target of vaccinating 70% of adults by July 4th.

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Childcare can continue to be a challenge for families if daycare centers are permanently closed, schools fail to study in person again, or summer camps are not fully utilized.

Rebooting the economy (and the job taking place that comes with it) isn’t as easy as flipping a switch, economists said.

“I don’t think it’s the whole puzzle,” said Konkel of the improved benefits. “I think it’s part of the puzzle.”

Some also question the notion of labor shortages.

“Nobody says that it is a ‘customer shortage’ when companies only offer high prices and poor service,” said Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, Bharat Ramamurti, in a tweet. “But some say it is a ‘labor shortage’ when companies offer low wages and poor social benefits.”

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimated that the $ 300 allowance had a “small but likely noticeable” impact on job searches and labor availability in early 2021.

If 7 out of 28 unemployed people get job offers that they would normally take, the availability of the additional $ 300 per week is forecast to force 1 in 7 to turn down the offer.

Beyond $ 300, most Republican states are also ending pandemic unemployment benefits for the self-employed and gig workers prematurely. These workers lose their benefits completely.

“I don’t think it’s right from a political point of view to bring these workers down to zero,” said Strain.

Instead, he said that entitlement to these benefits should be gradually tightened and workers should be notified.